The release of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass will attract many players to Microsoft’s subscription service, at the expense of the game’s sales. The gamble would be risky, but could pay off in the long term.
It’s the big day: this Friday, October 25, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 released on PC and consoles. If the release of an episode of the famous military FPS franchise is always an event, this one is particularly strategic since it marks the first time that a Call of Duty game will be available on the Xbox Game Pass service at its launch .
For a game now sold for 80 euros, its potential commercial success raises questions when millions of players will be able to access it via Microsoft’s subscription service. Several analysts are predicting record numbers for Game Pass, while sales of the game could suffer severely.
2.5 to 4 million more Game Pass subscribers
Interviewed by the media Game industrytwo analysts paint a similar picture for this highly anticipated release. The first, Michael Pachter of the research firm Webbush, the launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass could attract 3 to 4 million new subscribers to the service.
Piers Harding-Rolls of the company Ampere announces a gain of around 2.5 million subscribers to Game Pass Ultimate (+10%) following the release of the game. The latter specifies that the majority of new users will in reality be Core and Standard subscribers upgrading their subscription to access the latest Call of Duty, which is only available in the Ultimate offer.
The two analysts, however, agree that the launch of the game on Game Pass will harm its so-called “Premium” sales at full PC and console prices. Michael Pachter announces the figure of 6 million lost sales, or a quarter of Game Pass subscribers who would have purchased the game.
To go further
The next Call of Duty will weigh a record weight, but don’t panic
Justify subscription after single player campaign
It’s a safe bet that millions of players will subscribe to the Xbox Pass Pass Ultimate (or Standard on PC) subscription for one month in order to complete the single-player campaign of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6.
The whole challenge will then be to promote the retention of these new subscribers and to make up for this shortfall which promises to be massive for Microsoft, at least initially.
According to Piers Harding-Rolls, it will mainly be about monetizing this new audience in the long term:
Call of Duty is becoming above all a game-service which is monetized above all in-game. Microsoft will abandon sales of full games in exchange for a larger audience which can be monetized within the game itself.
Thus, the objective is not to convince existing fans, who already play the game for free on PC and console via their own means, but to attract an ever wider audience.
The availability of Black Ops 6 on Game Pass then becomes a flagship product to welcome more and more players into the “live service” ecosystem of Call of Duty with Warzone and multiplayer modes.
The next few months will be crucial for Microsoft to adjust its strategy for the largest license it now has with Call of Duty.
