Online betting traders on blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket are predicting that US President Joe Biden will withdraw from the upcoming US election after his unimpressive performance in the contest. presidential debate with Donald Trump.
Polymarket traders rate the chance of Biden dropping out of the race at 31% and the bet has attracted more than $7.6 million worth of bets as of press time.
Source: Polymarket
Similarly, forecasting startup Manifold has taken a similar view. The company reported that the odds of Biden becoming the Democratic nominee for the upcoming election have plummeted to 75% from 94% in the past day.
Source: Manifold
Jim Bianco from Bianco Research noted the exceptionally high number of bets, saying that prediction markets are “real-time, so when events like last night happen, they can measure how things have changed.” how to change… Biden’s odds (blue line) decrease more as Trump’s odds (red line) increase.”
“Our interpretation is that Biden is in a deep hole from which he may not be able to climb out. However, if Biden were replaced by someone who was popular, Trump might not win either. In other words, Trump could have had a costly victory last night.”
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The following chart averages the eight sites that take bets on who will win the Presidency. Notice that Biden’s odds (blue line) fell much more than Trump’s odds (red line) rose.
Our interpretation is that Biden is in a deep hole that he may be unable to climb out of.… pic.twitter.com/mwdiQMkV4n
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) June 28, 2024
Why are people betting on Biden dropping out?
The actions of traders betting on prediction markets reveal the extent of reaction to Biden’s performance at the first presidential debate.
Market experts note that replacing Biden just months before an election is unprecedented in modern times and was recently considered unthinkable. However, his debate performance has raised questions about his health and cognitive abilities.
Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China correspondent for the Financial Times, reported:
“A Democratic lawmaker told me that a large group of House members were texting each other during the debate with the same conclusion that Biden should drop out of the race. They are proposing a public convention to galvanize voters.”
Who can replace Biden?
Biden’s weak performance in the highly anticipated presidential debate has some looking for a potential replacement candidate to run against former president Donald Trump – and how they feel about electricity bills death?
While some wanted cryptocurrency to be part of the debate on Thursday night, that’s not exactly what happened as pundits and news outlets covered the performance. weak Biden’s when Trump offered one series false statement. Now, Democrats are reportedly talking about replacing Biden with another presidential candidate, which could prove to be a huge feat.
John Aughenbaugh, associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, said Biden would have to agree to withdraw and then it would be a “free for all.”
“At that point, any number of challengers could position themselves as a potential candidate. And it should be noted that time is of the essence if the Party decides to go down this path, as the Congress is less than two months away.”
News outlets have reported on several potential Democratic candidates including Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, former First Lady Michelle Obama and Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips.
Aughenbaugh said:
“Any potential candidate will have a hard time bridging the gap within the Democratic Party while also getting people to vote for a Democratic candidate, not vote for Trump, or not vote at all.”
Data from Polymarket indicates that betting traders are speculating about potential candidates to replace Biden. The “2024 Democratic Nomination” market on the site has attracted more than $63 million in bets, with Biden still leading.
Source: Polymarket
Interestingly, Gavin Newsom’s odds have increased to 10%, reflecting growing support. Newsom, a Biden supporter, praised Presidential debate.
Meanwhile, Michelle Obama has a 7% chance of becoming the candidate, while Kamala Harris also has a strong chance, with a 5% chance.
Cody Carbone, vice president of policy for the Chamber of Digital Commerce, said he doesn’t think Biden will be replaced, adding that it’s still too early.
“When you look at all the candidates being discussed for the top spot in the Democratic Party, most of them have no opinion on crypto and that needs to change, like that must change yesterday”.
Here’s how potential candidates have viewed cryptocurrencies over the years:
#1. Gavin Newsom
“When it comes to Newsom, he has been forced to be neutral when it comes to crypto, if not somewhat pessimistic, but also somewhat optimistic about Web3 in general and innovation, which I think is a great thing,” Carbone said. “I’m looking for candidates this cycle that are not necessarily pro- or anti-crypto, but pro-innovation and U.S. leadership and I think if they “If we can get there, they will end up being pro-blockchain and pro-crypto in the process.”
California’s governor signed an executive order in May 2022 to begin implementing a cryptocurrency framework for his state, built on an executive order issued by the Biden administration. Both called on regulators to work together to mitigate risks and foster innovation.
However, then Newsom vetoed a bill in 2022 that would create a framework for companies in the digital asset sector to apply for operating licenses.
“It is too early to define a licensing structure,” Newsom wrote in a September 23, 2022, letter to the California State Assembly. “A more flexible approach is needed to ensure regulatory oversight can keep pace with rapidly evolving use cases and technologies, and is guided by appropriate tools to address trends and minimize consumer harm.”
Last year, Newsom said he had no regrets about that veto following the collapse of the cryptocurrency industry following the failures of major companies like FTX. Regarding the executive order, Newsom said California took a “sober approach.”
“We tried to… look at this through a long-term lens, about how it will fundamentally change relationships, especially in finance. In particular, I see blockchain technology becoming more and more pervasive in our lives.”
Newsom later signed it into law the law in October 2023, noting that some parts need to be improved.
#2. Sherrod Brown
The Ohio lawmaker has been critical of cryptocurrency for years. Brown, leader of the Senate Banking Committee, said Cryptocurrency platforms often do not employ “common sense safeguards,” such as KYC rules, that help prevent illegal finance from traditional fields.
He also criticized the industry’s fallout following the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX in 2022.
However, Brown showed the more favorable side of stablecoin management. VIn April, he announced his willingness to push for stablecoin legislation in a package that included a bill allowing banks to deal in cannabis and other measures.
Carbone said Brown would be “a nightmare for the industry.”
“I don’t think he sees this industry as legitimate and the biggest threat is that there are still lawmakers, mostly Democrats, who want to take this industry out of the United States and cede leadership to this technology and I would say Sherrod Brown would fall into that camp.”
#3. Dean Phillips
Phillips, a presidential candidate before suspending his campaign in March, has not been very vocal about cryptocurrencies but was present at the event. Stand with Crypto in December. There, when asked about What Crypto Businesses Should Do In The Meantime, As The Government Looks To Enact New Laws Phillips said he would consider a bill on the structure of the cryptocurrency market, called FIT21.
Phillips also said he likes the privacy elements of cryptocurrency, but said it should not be expensive and should not be used for nefarious purposes.
Carbone said Phillips’s willingness to speak at a crypto event is a positive.
#4. Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, Michelle Obama
All three haven’t really taken a stance on cryptocurrency, but Carbone said that gives him hope.
“The candidates who haven’t said anything about crypto give me hope and optimism that they could be a white paper on crypto, and if that’s the case, then hopefully they’ll be open to education”.
Itadori
Bitcoin Magazine
