Dictatorships in the 21st century possess potential advantages. This argument stems from the idea that the Chinese and Russian governments allocate significant resources to advance their goals while the US government takes a more hands-off approach.
Let’s find out whether authoritarianism can defeat liberal democracies with insights from economist Noah Smith and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
Vitalik Buterin – Co-founder of Ethereum
The effectiveness of dictatorships as a threat to liberalism
Smith argues that liberal democracy was hailed as the optimal social model in the late 20th century, typified by Francis Fukuyama’s “end of history” thesis. However, recent developments have raised doubts about this triumphalism. The rise of China, perceived weaknesses in the United States, and the transformative impact of the Internet are at the heart of this reassessment.
The role of the Internet is key. Liberal democracies have historically excelled at aggregating information through markets, elections and public discourse, Smith acknowledges. However, the Internet’s ability to centralize large amounts of data may reduce that advantage. Authoritarian states can now exploit this data to gauge public sentiment, allocate resources more effectively, and respond quickly to unrest, as evidenced by rapid policy changes. of China after “white paper protests” in 2022.
Moreover, the Internet creates information chaos, making it easier for misinformation to spread. This scenario complicates governance in liberal democracies, where politicians spend a lot of time fighting false rumors and fundraising, reducing the effectiveness of governance.
Buterin expands on this, likening the information landscape to Thomas Hobbes’s concept of “the war of all against all,” in which monopolistic control over narratives can be a stable equilibrium. sole determination. This metaphor highlights the potential for authoritarian regimes to exploit the data aggregation capabilities of the Internet, turning a tool designed to grant freedom into one that enhances centralized control.
Arguments against the effectiveness of dictatorships
Smith and Buterin then explore counterarguments. Smith compared the printing press, which reduced information costs, leading to increased liberalism and social fragmentation rather than authoritarian rule. He asks why the Internet hasn’t followed a similar trajectory?
However, Smith explains today’s situation regarding non-linearity. Initially, reducing the cost of information through technologies such as the printing press and the telegraph strengthened liberal democracies by improving information aggregation. When these costs approach zero, the benefits remain unchanged while the costs of disinformation and information warfare increase exponentially.
Buterin added that centralized systems often excel at extraction rather than production, potentially outperforming free systems in zero-sum conflicts. He stressed that defining success solely by economic output can ignore broader implications for human development.
Buterin then examines the fundamental differences of the digital world from the physical world, especially in terms of defense mechanisms. Digital safeguards such as encryption and decentralized platforms provide strong protection without the need for physical analogs, demonstrating the ability to resist comprehensive controls in the sector. digital sector.
Furthermore, Buterin notes that fragmentation of the Internet into smaller, more specialized communities can mitigate the negative effects of information warfare. These fragmented spaces often maintain a higher quality of discourse than large, chaotic platforms like X.
Buterin stated:
“Twitter is the worst thing you see and it’s exactly the worst because when you think about private group chats, for example.
Private group chats have always maintained a higher level of quality and a highly productive level of discussion on smaller social media platforms, whether it is Farcaster or any other platform, they still maintain maintain a higher level of discussion”.
He then pointed to a 2022 paper by Smith discussing how he wanted to fragment the Internet.
Smith acknowledges this point and agrees that reducing reliance on popular, controversial platforms could lessen the social costs associated with information warfare, allowing for constructive discussions and more focused in smaller, more coherent groups.
Despite these reassurances, Smith raised concerns about the dictatorship’s global influence, especially through its sharp power tactics. He highlighted how China uses economic leverage to influence foreign companies and governments, gradually erasing national borders in the digital space. This ongoing cross-border information war poses a unique challenge that differs from traditional physical conflicts.
How can blockchain save democracy?
During the discussion, Noah Smith raised the question of whether blockchain technology could enable secure communication between people in authoritarian countries like China and Russia. Is there a way for people to speak freely and anonymously about political issues, bypassing government surveillance and censorship?
Buterin responded by highlighting the work of a company called Rarimo, based in Kyiv. They have developed a tool called “Freedom Tool” (Freedom Tool), uses zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technology* to allow Russian citizens to prove their citizenship and participate in online voting without revealing their identity.
This system ensures that results are tamper-proof and visible, creating an anonymous, censorship-resistant form of voting. Buterin sees this as an example of how blockchain and ZKP can provide both privacy and trust, potentially creating a world of information that is more secure and resilient to centralized cyberattacks and decentralized.
Buterin acknowledged that while blockchain technology may not be necessary for Americans to communicate, it is important for people in authoritarian countries to have secure and private conversations about the political situation. their. This technological capacity can help promote democratization efforts and internal dissent within these regimes by providing a safe space for dialogue and organization.
Smith appreciates this perspective and sees potential in developing tools that make the Internet landscape more conducive to pluralism, where multiple groups can interact in productive ways. The idea is not to play cat and mouse with oppressive regimes but to create robust systems that support healthy information ecosystems that allow diverse voices to be heard without fear of reprisal .
In short, blockchain technology, with its ability to provide secure, anonymous, and verifiable voting mechanisms, offers promising avenues to support democratic movements and protect freedoms in the face of climate change. dictatorial scene.
By leveraging these technologies, it is possible to overcome some of the shortcomings that liberal democracies face in the digital age, ensuring that democracy can continue to thrive even in challenging environments. Challenging school.
Finally, the discussion emphasizes the complexity of predicting long-term outcomes in the face of rapid technological advances. While the potential for authoritarian regimes to exploit these technologies is enormous, the inherent adaptability and resilience of liberal democracies should not be underestimated. The future remains uncertain, shaped by the interaction between technological capabilities, political structures and social values.
*Zero knowledge proof (ZKP) is a method in cryptography and number theory that allows one party to prove that they know a certain fact without having to reveal specific information about that fact. In a ZKP, the prover has the ability to prove to the verifier that a statement is true without providing any additional information beyond the credibility of the statement. In blockchain, ZKP can be used to verify the correctness of a transaction without having to reveal sensitive details such as the amount of money in the transaction. This helps protect user privacy while ensuring system integrity.
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