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Thursday, July 4, 2024
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Galaxy Digital predicts approval rate

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, recently provided one analysis of Solana ETF spot filings from investment firms VanEck and 21Shares. The filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 28, demonstrate an aggressive move to integrate Solana (SOL) into the structured framework of regulated financial markets. frameworks, similar to those established for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

VanEck’s proposal, as outlined in their S-1 document, aims to launch a commodity-based Trust that would hold Solana directly, thus allowing the ETF to closely track the market price of the asset . Unlike some cryptocurrency ETFs, this product will not engage in staking of the assets held.

Following this announcement, the market reacted positively, with the price of SOL increasing by approximately 10%. However, the application is still in its early stages, lacking detailed operational structures such as custodians, cash custodians and authorized participants. These aspects are often addressed in later revisions as the product matures for final approval.

Why Solana Approval Rate ETF very low spot?

According to the latest updates, VanEck has yet to file the required Form 19b-4, which would trigger a formal SEC review. The typical review period, once initiated, would take up to 240 days, according to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. So if VanEck files early, a final decision could come around March 15, 2025. The process includes several regulatory checkpoints and a public comment period, which is standard for the approval process for new financial products.

The SEC currently considers Solana an unregistered security, largely based on the ongoing lawsuit against major cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. This classification complicates the approval process for a Solana-based ETP. With the SEC alleging in its lawsuit against Coinbase that Solana is an unregistered security, without a significant change in stance from the agency, it is likely that this application will be denied, Thorn said.

Historically, the SEC has taken a cautious approach to crypto ETFs. The approval process typically follows a sequential path starting with regulated futures markets, then futures-based ETFs, and finally domiciled spot ETFs. United States. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have navigated this path with varying degrees of resistance and success.

It is worth noting that the SEC’s previous rejection of Bitcoin ETF approval was based on concerns about market size and oversight. The turning point came with the DC Court of Appeals ruling in August 2023, which favored adequate oversight of the futures market. The ruling paved the way for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, starting in January 2024, followed by an Ethereum ETF in May 2024.

Rates can change quickly

The newly passed FIT21 Act in the US House of Representatives, which delineates the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), could play an important role in money management future electronics. This law clarifies which digital assets should be considered commodities and which are securities. Such legal clarity could pave the way for future approval of digital currency ETFs, including Solana. Thorn notes:

“That clarity could also significantly impact or improve ETF approval rates for underlying digital currencies beyond Bitcoin and Ether.”

Overall, the road ahead for the Solana ETF is fraught with regulatory hurdles and uncertainty.

“VanEck has a history of filing early: in the last Bitcoin ETF round, they were the fourth to file (filing a day after BlackRock) and they were the first to apply for a spot Ethereum ETF. That is commendable – perhaps they are betting on the outcome of the election.”

Itadori

According to Bitcoinist

Mark Tyson
Mark Tyson
Freelance News Writer. Always interested in the way in which technology can change people's lives, and that is why I also advise individuals and companies when it comes to adopting all the advances in Apple devices and services.
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