Bitcoin begins Q3 2024 with a bang as bulls aim to regain lost ground en route to all-time highs.
BTC price strength is temporarily returning as the combined weekly, monthly, and quarterly support levels show that the $60,000 support level remains intact.
Based on a 2.44% increase in the 24 hours as of press time, Bitcoin certainly has a lot of work to do to continue its bull market.
Months of consolidation have now resulted in two drops below $60,000, both of which increasingly look like bear traps. Can the bulls really win?
Going forward, traders will not only be looking at the $60,000 level but also at other key bull market trend lines to gain more confidence in the BTC price recovery.
Macroeconomic data will add to the overall volatility this week, with plenty of US unemployment data as well as inflation cues from senior US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
Attention is also on Bitcoin miners. After weeks of hashrate “capitulation,” will the current low hash price make it impossible for the industry to recover?
Let’s take a closer look at these issues as BTC recovers from what bulls hope was a false breakdown in July.
Bitcoin faces a battle to stay in the market cow
A series of spikes on the last day of June helped Bitcoin secure promising weekly, monthly and quarterly closes above $62,500.
Momentum then continued, with BTC reaching a local high of $63,724 before consolidating lower, according to data from TradingView.
Chart BTC price 1 hour | Source: TradingView
Figures from monitoring source CoinGlass confirm a 7% loss in June, while Bitcoin ended the second quarter down a total of 12%.
BTC Monthly Return (screenshot) | Source: CoinGlass
In the near future, market participants are still cautious, there are still many facilities that need to be recovered for sentiment to improve.
For Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, “Bitcoin has had a nice recovery from the lows, but for now, it seems the bulls don’t have enough momentum to close above the 21-Week Moving Average.”
“Failure to break above it could mean another retest of the low before BTC can return to ATH territory,” he said. write in one of his latest updates on X (formerly Twitter).
Alan calls a key support line that was recently lost support. The 21-week moving average is currently at around $64,000.
“TLDR: Save the dry powder*,” he summarizes.
Chart BTC price 1 day with MA 21 weeks | Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, prominent trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that a large “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures contracts opened up thanks to the weekend rally.
Starting at $60,400, this is now “the biggest we have had in a long time,” Daan Crypto Trades warned.
“1. Yes, the gap below may be closing but the price is still quite far as we speak, so don’t underestimate it,” he said. write in an analysis on X.
BTC chart with “intervals” way” CME futures | Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Meanwhile, a look at order book liquidity shows that price orchestrated much of the hunt for liquidity in July, with $64,100 now the main area of concern.
BTC liquidation heat map (screenshot) | Source: CoinGlass
Unemployment data meets Fed’s Powell
Several US unemployment data releases were the main catalysts for macro volatility this week.
Despite the Fourth of July holiday, there is no shortage of events that could potentially cause unexpected moves in the cryptocurrency markets in the coming week.
In addition to unemployment – a sensitive topic for Bitcoin and altcoins this year – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak from the monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal on July 2.
A day later, the minutes of the Fed’s previous meeting on inflation policy issues will be released.
Trading source The Kobeissi Letter summarizes the upcoming diary days:
“We’re going to have a short but very busy week.”
Looking ahead, QCP Capital trading desk is increasingly bullish on broader risk assets this month.
“Looking at seasonality, BTC had an average return of 9.6% in July and has a strong recovery trend, especially after a negative June (-9.85%),” it wrote in a Latest newsletter section for Telegram channel subscribers.
“Our options desk also sees bullish positioning flows last Friday through the end of the month, likely in anticipation of the Ethereum spot ETF launch. Many signs show that prices will increase in July.”
Major BTC price trend line highlighted
So far, Bitcoin lacks momentum to conquer the nearby resistance at the crucial $64,000 level.
The significance of the area where BTC has so far been rejected after the monthly open is due to several trend lines merging together in a single place.
As reported, outside the 21-week moving average, $64,000 is the cost basis of short-term Bitcoin (STH) holders. Also known as the realized price, it reflects the aggregate purchase price of coins purchased by speculators.
Throughout the current bull market, the cost basis has acted as support, with the only exception occurring in August 2023.
Bitcoin Cost Base Data | Source: Glassnode
“If the price does not move above it quickly, it will likely become a resistance level for future prices,” SignalQuant, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote. warning in one of the Quicktake blog posts last week.
At current prices, STH entities, which correspond to entities that hold a certain amount of BTC for 155 days or less, are modest on average.
As a result, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric, which compares STH holdings to their purchase price, is below the break-even point of 1. Except for early May, this is the first time it has fallen into loss territory since October 2023, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows. confirm.
Bitcoin STH-MVRV | Source: Glassnode
There is light at the end of the tunnel for workers dig?
Despite the moderate recovery in BTC price, the network’s fundamentals remain in what some describe as “surrender.”
Difficulty is still expected to drop 5% this week, according to estimates from monitoring resource BTC.com, and Bitcoin miners continue to adjust to the new economic reality following the halving.
Overview of the index Bitcoin network basics (screenshot) | Source: BTC.com
As reported, less efficient miners will likely shut down due to costs, resulting in hashrate reduce – a familiar phenomenon after the halving event.
The Hash Ribbons metric, comparing 30-day and 60-day hashrate, shows that the “surrender” period among miners is still in place.
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons | Source: Glassnode
That said, withdrawals from miner-linked wallets, miner coins sent to exchanges, and OTC trading have all dropped sharply over the past month, leading to renewed optimism about mining conditions. word.
“Miners’ selling pressure has decreased significantly and their selling volumes are being processed quickly,” wrote CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan. comment in a recent Quicktake post about this issue.
“Enough conditions have been created to continue the upward momentum again in the third quarter of 2024.”
Transaction of miner Bitcoin with exchanges, balance on OTC desk (screenshot) | Source: CryptoQuant
Cryptocurrency market sentiment recovered clearly
The quarterly close has been evident when it comes to overall crypto market sentiment.
The latest numbers from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index show a marked increase in “greed” that prevailed over the weekend.
Fear and Greed jumped 6 points on July 1, and as a lagging indicator, the full impact of the latest increase in aggregate crypto market capitalization may yet be seen.
On June 29, the Index measured just 30/100 – a value that corresponds not only to “fear” but also “extreme fear” as an average sentiment score.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index (screenshot) | Source: Alternative.me
However, during the lows, research firm Santiment noted “oversold” readings on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a potential bullish signal for a recovery.
“Bitcoin has recovered slightly after a short-lived 2-week drop. But note the continued negative sentiment from the crowd, suggesting that their patience is wearing thin,” Santiment shown on X.
“This, along with a low RSI of just 36, are strong signs that a recovery is imminent.”
BTC/USD chart with RSI, sentiment data | Source: Santiment/X
*Hashrate is a unit of measurement of the computing power of a blockchain network or other distributed computing network. It measures the number of cryptographic calculations the network can perform per second. The commonly used measurement unit is “hashes per second” (H/s) or larger units such as kilohash (KH/s), megahash (MH/s), gigahash (GH/s), terahash (TH /s), and petahash (PH/s). Hashrate is often used to measure the strength of Proof of Work blockchain networks like Bitcoin
*Dry powder: a slang term, referring to highly liquid market securities that are considered cash-like.
You can see Bitcoin prices here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
Home home
According to Cointelegraph
