Polymarket hits $100 million in monthly volume as US presidential race heats up

Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket hit $100 million in monthly trading volume in June as players increased their bets on the US presidential election.

At the time of writing, there is $203.3 million worth of bets on “Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election” – including individual “Yes” or “No” bets on 17 markets prediction field.

US President Donald Trump is currently the favourite, with 62% odds that he will win the US election – a total of $24.7 million in “Yes” and “No” bets.

Polymarket’s 2024 Presidential Election Winners Market. Source: Polymarket

In second place is incumbent US President Joe Biden, with $23.9 million wagered on him winning a second term. However, that odds have dropped from 34% to 21% following his poor performance in the June 28 presidential debate. This has led traders to increase their bets on Biden dropping out of the November election race, with estimates rising from 19% on Thursday to 44% at press time.

Many are critical of the 81-year-old president’s ability to secure another term due to his age. A shaky performance in the first CNN debate with Trump on Thursday did little to ease those concerns.

Biden appeared to have difficulty debating, slurred his words and was even drawn into bizarre antics over who was the better golfer.

A probe of CBS News and YouGov conducted on Friday and Saturday after the debate found that only 28% of registered voters supported Biden, with 72% opposing his presidential bid.

Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, the odds for Democrats Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama jumped as some political commentators questioned whether Biden should withdraw from the presidential race.

Other betting markets related to the election also brought in millions of dollars in bets.

There are also millions of dollars betting on whether American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren can win the presidency, but those markets give less than a 1% chance at this stage.

Polymarket, which runs on Ethereum’s Polygon sidechain, saw trading volume reach $109.9 million in June – surpassing the $100 million mark for the first time.

Transaction volumes from January to May ranged from $38.9 million to $63 million, up 620% from the previous five months (August-December 2023).

Polymarket monthly trading volume change since September 2020: Source: Dune Analytics

The number of monthly active traders also jumped 115% to 29,266 in June.

The total value locked in Polymarket is now $40.2 million, up nearly 69% in the past 30 days, data from

Polymarket TVL. Source: Token Terminal

Cryptocurrency prices and UEFA European Football Championship 2024 markets have also seen large trading volumes on Polymarket.

Polymarket, launched in June 2020, recently raised $70 million and is led by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund.

Yuga Cohler, technical lead at Coinbase said Decentralized prediction markets are a way to weed out false narratives and see the truth clearly.

“Prediction markets are the freedom-preserving technology that helps society move forward.”

Itadori

Bitcoin Magazine