Cumulative trend score (Accumulation Trend Score)* of Bitcoin indicates the behavioral trends of market participants. Historical data from Glassnode highlights changing accumulation patterns. The early periods of 2015 and 2016 showed sporadic accumulation, reflecting investors’ cautious approach to BTC. Significant accumulation began during the bull market in 2017, when prices skyrocketed while mainstream media rushed to cover Bitcoin.
Trend scores accumulate over the years. Source: Glassnode
However, when entering the bear market period in 2018 and 2019, the level of accumulation by investors decreased, indicating a low level of trust in Bitcoin. However, 2020 and 2021 marked an increase in accumulation, especially in response to economic uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic, with huge purchases coming from institutional investors such as MicroStrategy and Tesla. In 2021, the score spiked during the bull run, peaking with a new ATH, followed by a distribution phase as the market corrected.
From mid-2023 to mid-2024, accumulation increases noticeably; Especially ahead of the halving in April this year, entities appear to be adopting systematic strategies to increase their holdings.
Cumulative trend score by month. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s post-halving volatility during US trading hours reveals historical patterns
Regional prices* are developed in a two-step process. First, price movements are assigned to regions based on market hours in the US, Europe, and Asia. Regional prices are then determined by calculating the cumulative sum of price changes over time for each region.
Bitcoin’s monthly price changes during US market hours show notable fluctuations over the past year. From July 2023 to June 2024, Bitcoin entered a “chaotic” period with alternating increases and decreases. Data shows a trend of rising volatility starting in November 2023, decreasing around the launch of US ETFs and then peaking in March 2024, when monthly price changes US time has increased by 10,000 USD. Following the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin saw a notable downtrend following a brief rise in late May, with a US hourly drop approaching $5,000 from mid-June 2024.
Monthly BTC price change in the United States. Source: Glassnode
Historical data shows that similar fluctuations have occurred in the past. Looking at a longer time frame from 2017 to 2024, similar patterns of extreme price movements can be seen during US market hours, especially around key events and major market changes. For example, the sharp price drops between 2021 and 2022 also parallel the recent post-halving decline.
Monthly BTC price change in the United States. Source: Glassnode
This cyclical pattern highlights the impact of Bitcoin halving events and broader market conditions on its price movements during US trading hours. Analyzing these trends provides important insights into potential future movements and investor sentiment in the digital asset market.
*Cumulative trend score (Accumulation Trend Score) is an indicator that reflects the relative size of entities actively accumulating coins based on the amount of BTC they hold. The Cumulative Trend scale represents both the size of entities’ balances (participation score) and the number of new coins they have bought/sold in the past month (balance change score). A cumulative propensity score close to 1 represents that overall, larger entities (or a larger portion of the network) are accumulating; If the value is close to 0, it means they are allocating or not accumulating coins.
*Regional prices are an indicator of the 30-day change in BTC prices set during US market hours, which is from 8am to 8pm Eastern Time (1pm-01pm 00 UTC), and Eastern Daylight Time (12:00-0:00 UTC).
Itadori
Bitcoin Magazine
