During a recent appearance on the “Odds Lots” podcast, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee spoke explain The rationale for his Bitcoin predictions.
“Bitcoin is unlike other assets because it has cooperative value. You know, people who contribute to the network will benefit and that’s different from any other asset class.”
Lee recounted that his company first wrote about Bitcoin in 2017 and Bitcoin was priced around $1,000 at the time. Back then, Fundstrat published a Whitepaper, which explained that there are two main variables that determine Bitcoin price: the number of active wallets and activity per wallet.
“At that time, we made a simple prediction. We say that in five years, by 2022, if the number of wallets increases by 70% and activity per wallet increases by 40%, Bitcoin will reach $25,000 by 2022.”
This super cow calls Bitcoin “incredible technology” because it is so safe that it has never been hacked in its 14 years of existence.
“Not a single entry on the Bitcoin ledger is fraudulent.”
That said, more than 80% of Bitcoin price fluctuations are still explained by per-wallet activity.
Fidelity’s Jurian Timmer has suggested the slow growth of the Bitcoin network could be the reason the cryptocurrency has failed to record record highs in recent months.
On Monday, the cryptocurrency king slipped below $60,000 for the first time in more than a month, hitting an intraday low of $59,863.
Recently, Lee boosted his previously stated price target of $150,000 in June.
Short-term holder bBitcoin dismantling project leads to clause hole to 537 million dollars
The decline in BTC price has resulted in significant realized losses of over $500 million. Specifically, data from Glassnode identifies losses of $537 million.
Data from Glassnode shows that the sell-off was mainly driven by short-term holders (STH) holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. They accounted for almost all of the $537 million loss. In contrast, long-term holders (LTH) who held for more than 155 days, lost only $543,000.
LOh really belong to Bitcoin by LTH/STH | Source: Glassnode
This marks the third largest net loss of 2024. This follows a significant sell-off on March 19, when Bitcoin retraced to $62,000 from its ATH. On May 1, when the price dropped below $60,000, it reached a low of $56,500. A closer analysis shows that of the $537 million in losses, $441 million was from Bitcoin holders who had been in possession for a month or less, according to Glassnode.
Real loss of Bitcoin by age | Source: Glassnode
Data from Glassnode shows that approximately $325 million in losses were due to whales, entities holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC. This highlights that even large-scale investors or whales are susceptible to selling under market pressure, similar to retail investors.
Real loss of Bitcoin by wallet size | Source: Glassnode
You can see Bitcoin prices here.
Minh Anh
Bitcoin Magazine
