Under the Biden administration, Solana (SOL) seems unlikely to get its own ETF in the US. However, according to market maker GSR, if Donald Trump is re-elected, the Solana ETF has a higher chance of being approved and the SOL price will explode more than Bitcoin.
The US presidential election could bring a breakthrough for additional crypto ETFs like SOL. Under current US regulations, cryptocurrency ETFs typically require that the underlying asset has traded in the federally regulated futures market for several years before an ETF can be considered for launch. Solana does not currently meet this condition, meaning it is not currently eligible for a spot ETF. However, the Trump administration could introduce more flexible regulations that would allow the launch of spot crypto ETFs without requiring prior futures trading.
GSR believes that if Solana had an ETF like Bitcoin, it could experience significant price increases. Historical data since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF shows that the price of BTC has doubled, and Solana, with its strong market demand and distributed network, could have larger upside benefits if it attracts inflows. similar money.
Source: GSR
According to GSR analysis, if Solana attracts 5% of the amount of money that Bitcoin has during the ETF launch, Solana’s price could increase more than three times. A more optimistic case of 14% cash flow could cause SOL price to increase nearly nine times. These forecasts highlight the potential impact of regulatory changes on Solana’s market dynamics.
GSR emphasized that it will all depend on the results of the upcoming US Presidential election in November and subsequent management decisions. While the proposed Trump administration could benefit Solana’s ETF prospects thanks to its crypto-friendly policies, its implementation and actual impact remain highly uncertain and depend on development of the political context.
The market is currently skeptical about the immediate launch of a Solana ETF, as evidenced by the massive 750% premium of Grayscale Trust Solana (GSOL) to its NAV. This premium could be reduced if the SOL ETF is launched, as happened with Grayscale Trust Bitcoin (GBTC) when it converted to an ETF. However, this is unlikely to happen due to GSOL’s lack of liquidity.
Asset management firm VanEck recently filed for the first U.S. Solana spot ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), firing the opening shot in the SOL-based exchange-traded fund race. The move sent the token’s price up more than 10% on the day.
Source: TradingView
Itadori
According to CoinDesk
