Nvidia already promised $91 billion — one bank says it's about to blow past that

Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 26, and the company's own guidance says $91 billion for the quarter. UBS thinks that number is too conservative — by $3 to 4 billion — and it's telling clients to expect Nvidia to guide the October quarter to $107-108 billion, comfortably ahead of what's currently priced into the stock.

The gap UBS is pointing at

Companies routinely guide conservatively and then beat their own number — it's practically a ritual on Wall Street. What's notable here is the size of the gap UBS is calling. A $3-4 billion beat on a $91 billion guide isn't a rounding error; it's roughly what an entire mid-sized chipmaker generates in a quarter. UBS has kept its Buy rating and a $280 price target through the run-up to this report.

Why UBS thinks Nvidia is sandbagging

The thesis has two legs. First, Blackwell demand hasn't cooled — UBS describes it as steady, not decelerating, despite a full year on the market. Second, and more interesting: Rubin, the architecture meant to succeed Blackwell, is reportedly contributing to revenue sooner than analysts modeled. UBS now expects Rubin shipments to accelerate toward 500,000 GPUs a month as Blackwell production gradually steps aside for it.

What this means beyond the stock ticker

If you're not trading NVDA, this still touches you. Nvidia's chip supply is the input for basically every part of the AI hardware story we cover — from the record collateral deal Nvidia struck this year to the rental prices that doubled when AI stocks briefly sold off. A bigger, faster Rubin ramp than expected is generally good news for GPU supply eventually reaching consumers — but it hasn't been so far this year. Retail GPU prices have moved in the opposite direction, with Newegg listings up nearly 39% around Nvidia's own MSRP stunt and DRAM shortages adding another 30% on top of that.

The bet nobody's pricing in: collateral

There's a second thread worth watching alongside the headline number. Nvidia has increasingly become the collateral behind other companies' financing, with GPUs themselves treated as an asset class lenders will underwrite against. A blowout quarter reinforces the assumption behind those deals — that Nvidia hardware holds its value. A miss, even a modest one against UBS's inflated bar, would test that assumption in a way a normal earnings reaction wouldn't.

Nvidia's written commentary from CFO Colette Kress typically drops shortly before the call itself — that's usually the first real signal, well ahead of the 2 p.m. PT call, of which way this lands.